The future of ...

Erwin van Lun predict the long term future and blogs about developments today gradually shaping that future. Also in Dutch

Category: Business Evolution

Business Evolution While brand evolution is mainly focused on the outside, the visual part of a company, this category’s focus is on the inside. The strategic move to hire somebody from outside the industry, a merger, a take-over, a strategic cooperation or a special hiring campaign will be published in this category. But there will be more, like for example different ways of sharing knowledge within a company.

My very first Crowd Funding Campagn

As many of you know, I am a strong believer of Crowd Funding, the new, non-anonymous way, to back entrepreneurs, ideas and concepts.

First checkout the campaign for laughter yoga teacher on crowd funding platform Wayv:. (It's in Dutch btw although the navigation is in English).


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

Crowd Funding will replace the anonymous stock-exchange listings. Nowadays, we still have anonymous share-holders for historical reasons. Did you know that listed corporations don’t have access to their actual shareholders?? They simply don’t know who are actually owning the company ... they even can’t send them an email .. It is because shares where issued on paper centuries ago.

As a result, companies can do whatever they want, only focused on profit,  because this old lack of the technology in the past to track down shareholders.
Due to historical decisions, the influence of corporations is far larger than many countries in the world, while at the same time being owned by anonymous shareholders who are primarily interested in money without really knowing what’s going on in the daily practice of their (!) company.

This should change, and will change, now the Internet allows us to publish all the names of share holders in real time. It will be mandatory for all legal persons. You should be able to contact every share holder personally. Even when they invested only 100 euros. They are still responsible and they should know where they invest in.

This will imply that people of the world will held (private) share holders of corporations, (i.e. the owners) responsible, instead of those actually working in the organization, just being part of a system. The system will change!!! The result will be that we are able to organize the world in a total different way.

Crowd funding is not just a new internet application. It will really change the world. Our World. Our better world.

Emerce continues individually

Emerce, the title for the Dutch magazine of the same name, website and event eDay has cut itself loose from publisher VNU Media through a management buy-out.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

Stockholding companies will disappear. We’ll start to see completely new concepts in which people do share financial interests, but they’ll coincide with an organization’s right to exist: the addition of value to people’s lives. Only that can be guaranteed by a non-stockholding company. With stockholding companies those interests are disconnected and we see which problems come with that.

Small brands like Emerce and throw themselves into community facilitation entirely and ensure that people truly continue in the area they want to be good at. I foresee a beautiful future for Emerce and a somber one for VNU Media.

Facebook is growing with 600,00 members per day(!)

Social network Facebook is growing with 600,000 new users each day. Currently the counter is at over 150 million. About 70% of this growth comes from outside the US.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

The amount of companies with a huge customerbase is ever rising. When I wrote my book I identified Vodafone and Citibank with 300 million customers. The amount of companies/brands that operates world-wide, has a shred customer database worldwide and which can help customers worldwide without having to create a new account will happily continue to rise in the coming years. The waiting is for the first company with a billion registered users.

American Express regular bank

American Express, a credit card company, is becoming a regular bank. The company has received permission to do this. This allows the company easier access to new funding.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

You lend money to people you trust. You trust people you know. You know people when you’ve experienced something together with them. When you’ve been together for a prolonged period. The idea of a credit card, loaning based on no relationship at all, is based on nothing. The new financial system that’ll come will be based completely on trust. People are only allowed to spend money if they have it. People are only allowed to borrow when there’s a guarantee or trust. And a bank might not always know you well, but the bank can have relationships with people who have trust in you. Banks will start to use such relationships. Banks will start to facilitate networks in which mutual trust is shown. And that trust will be the basis for lending someone money.

That spells the end of credit cards and credit card companies. This development is shown here.

MyHeritage takes over Kindo

MyHeritage, one of the world's most popular family-websites, is taking over social network Kindo. Worldwide MyHeritage has over 25 million members and, up to now, has been translated into 25 different languages.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

Facilitating mutual contact will eventually be a market for a few companies in the world. Where there are now thousands of social networks and hundreds of telecom operators that also store telephone directories and people need to maintain a different profile everywhere, later people can maintain their data and manage their relationships with others using one social network. Whether that’s family, it’s about friends or vague acquaintances. It doesn’t matter what network they’re on, you can just link to them. Just like the railway tracks used to be all different or we had to connect telephone nets. Social networking sites will offer personal contact services to people: what do I need to do to make you feel happier in your social life? And that mostly automated. The development of big companies that can afford the technology required is well under way. This is an example of this.

Seatwave buys tradesite Skelper

Seatwave (Dutch), is taking over the Dutch site Skelper. Seatwave is, according to themselves, the biggest ticket service site in Europe where consumers can sell tickets for events.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

In the past we’ve devised country borders for our own safety. Within these borders economies have been able to grow on the basis of physical goods and services. The coming decade most innovations will be made in the virtual world. This world, per definition, knows no borders. New companies such as this one, but also for example social networks, start in their own country (optimalized for language, local law or combination with local massmedia), but after a couple of years it’ll become clear that you’re doing things double in different countries: there are a lot of differences, but especially also a lot of similarities. Then the consolidation strike follows. This is happening extensively in Europe right now and the worldwide expansions will be the inevitable next step in a year or 5-10.

Game-producer Ubisoft buys filmmaker

Game-publisher Ubisoft has announced that it has taken over the Canadian special effects-studio Hybride Technologies. Together they'll work on movie versions of game series.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

Films are (almost for free) becoming trailers for games, that’s been my prediction for some years now. With this acquisition Ubisoft is taking a step in this direction.

Nationale Apotheek sends medicine

The Dutch Nationale apotheek (National apothecary) sends products of repeating prescriptions with the mail. This saves the consumer time and health insurance companies money. Since its founding last year 50,000 customers are using the apothecary's services.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

It may seem a little far-fetched, but in fact we’re just dealing with another form of homeshopping. We let more and more products be delivered at home so that we can spend the saved time on more enjoyable things. The Nationale apotheek sends repeating prescriptions in the post. This saves the consumer time and health insurance companies money. This trend will continue merrily in the coming decennia. We leave more and more repeating jobs to others. Whether it’s administration, looking up things, ironing or refilling one’s supply (of medicine): we let it all be done for us.

Eperium will be able to find people for Curacao

Dutch webshop company Eperium has divided its branches neatly across different timezones to be available 24 hours a day. With the opening of the establishment on Curaçao the e-Commerce specialist offers service around the clock. On top of that the exotic location works as a magnet on the rare ITers.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

The network economy doesn’t limit itself to one country, but stretches across the entire globe. The experience economy, in which this vast network is formed, furthermore needs people that can design and produce experiences in a virtual world. A job that can be done anywhere in the world. This working method of companies is one that we’ll see more and more often as a result.

Nestlé reduces costs through speech recognition

Nespresso brought the costs for its contact center down with 16% with the help of Nortel's automatic speech recognition. Without intermediation of an agent customers can place their order for the small coffee cups. Mother company Nestle processes over 300,000 orders per year. The 180 agents in the contact center in Lausanne receive requests in German, French and Italian. The implemented speech recognition also understands and uses the English language. The system reduces the average waiting period and is active during peak hours.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

Cost reduction is often a reason to implement speech recognition. However, they form the basis for the automated dialogue. The dialogue in which the consumer’s emotions will soon be stimulated. Costs is nowadays a good start to begin with.

Pathé places playstations in lobby

Movie theatre chain Pathé is placing Sony Playstations in its lobby. This allows movie-goers to enjoy interactive entertainment before or after the movie as well as during the intermission.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

This is how the experience economy emerges in a virtual world. Soon the games will be tuned to the movie you’re watching. You’ll be given assignments that are hidden in the movie or – still later – the movie will adapt to the gaming behavior in the intermission before. Or you’ll continue playing through your cell phone whilst you’re watching the ‘movie’ (what’s the difference with interactive television?) Or you’ll continue when you’re home, while you actually already started there. Experiences in a virtual world don’t limit themselves to one screen, but travel with you as you travel past different screens. This cooperation is a start.

Vodafone in contact-maintenance-business

Vodafone has taken over ZYB, a mobile social network, as a step towards the implementation of the 'Total Communications'-strategy. Users of ZYB can enter the data on their cell phone as contacts, appointments and messages and save it online. In that vision Vodafone isn't a (mobile) telephone company, but it's all about the contacts in the cell phone.


Future vision by Erwin Van Lun

Vodafone understands that the additional value in future will be much closer to human emotions. Not the dialing of a number, not the connection of two machines, but it’s the contact between two people that matters. Each screen will soon be connected to the virtual world, so each screen will also be a telephone. And contacts who are available on the first screen will, per definition, also be available on the second, no matter where you are in the world. That’s saying something.

If screens are per definition always connected with one another, the companies who provide this are offering a commodity product. People aren’t interested in this at all anymore. In part because the costs will be incredibly low. Worldwide there’ll only be a few players who connect screens with one another. Just like there’s only a limited amount of oil companies.

What people will be willing to pay for is the assistance in maintaining one’s contacts. ‘Call Anne’ is the basic function. ‘Tell Anne I’ll be a bit later’ is a next step, but what’s really important is the answer to the question ‘Why wouldn’t you call Anne back?’ Then you’ve got to immerse yourself in the lives of humans. Only then can you call yourself a social coaching brand.

Thuisbezorgd.nl changes the food chain

Thuisbezorgd.nl, the Dutch market leader in home delivered meals, forwards every order on its website by e-mail or fax to the restaurant it is ordered from. ‘At peak times on Sundays we process an average of 1 order per second. Things can go wrong then. A fax can be out of paper, or an e-mail doesn’t arrive. I think that 5 to 10 percent of the orders doesn’t directly get through. That’s why our call center makes follow-up calls for every order.’ (em, Dutch).

Thus Thuisbezorgd.nl changes the food chain. First she creates the market, and makes sure a substantial part of the orders is made through her site. Then software suppliers will come with reservation and order systems connected to the databases of Thuisbezorgd.nl. So that in the end no e-mail or fax will be necessary any more, and information is (almost) always correct. The consumer then can directly see if for example a certain dish is temporarily not available. And of course through Thuisbezorgd.nl, but also through other websites, they will be able to submit their order electronically. With that, we will   also get connections with review systems and social networks. And then food coaching brands can really come to life.

BBC sells programs through iTunes

British broadcaster BBC sells programs through iTunes. Hit series like Little Britain, Spooks en Torchwood can be bought through the British iTunes store. One episode costs 1,89 pound Sterling (2,50 Euros) (bc, Dutch). Thus BBC slowly changes from broadcaster to production company. Programming the night of the media consumer will get less applicable - that task is taken over by home entertainment coaching brands. In the long run, the government will determine what content is distributed to its citizens, for free (to every world citizen in fact), based on tax money. Paid content however will soon only be applicable for commercial parties who will make very high quality (interactive) content, the basis for the experience economy.

Philips builds worldwide CRM database

Philips had an internal worldwide CRM database built (mb, Dutch). Nowadays it is harder for brands to reach consumers (send their messages) through today’s media. It becomes more profitable to invest in existing customers, with whom a dialogue can be started, accompanied by their detailed profile. This move of Philips points to that direction.

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